13/07/2015
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/12/eurozone-crisis-which-countries-are-for-or-against-grexit
A.- Open to Grexit
1. GERMANY: Angela Merkel has long sought to avoid going down in history as the German chancellor who presided over the breakup of the eurozone. But her government and many centre-right MPs are not convinced that Greece has done enough to justify a new three-year bailout.
2. AUSTRIA: Austria has been consistently downbeat about the prospects for an agreement with Greece and thinks the risks of broader contagion to the rest of the eurozone from an exit are limited.
3. THE NETHERLANDS: The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, is a close ally of Merkel and wants Greece to come up with far-reaching reforms, otherwise “it will be over quickly”.
4. BELGIUM: Although a champion of EU integration, Belgium’s centre-right government is worried the eurozone’s credibility would be damaged if agreements with Greece were changed.
5. FINLAND: The nationalist Finns party has threatened to pull out of the ruling coalition and topple Finland’s two-month old government if the country agrees to a third Greek bailout.
6. SLOVAKIA: An amicable split between Athens and its eurozone partners would be better than allowing Greece or the entire currency bloc to turn into a zombie state, argues Peter Kažimír, Slovakia’s finance minister.
7. LITHUANIA: Lithuania is the newest entrant to the eurozone and one of Greece’s harshest critics. The president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, has said Greece’s proposals are insufficient and BASED ON OUTDATED INFORMATION.
8. LATVIA: The Latvian prime minister, Laimdota Straujuma, insists she will not sign up to any agreement that means writing down the value of Greece’s debts, while the head of Latvia’s central bank thinks Greece has already “voted itself out of the eurozone”.
9. MALTA: “We need a solution but not at any cost,” the prime minister, Joseph Muscat, has said. Malta is against reducing Greece’s overall debt burden, but is prepared to make repayment terms more flexible.
B.- Wavering, but prefer to avoid Grexit
10. PORTUGAL: Portugal went through three years of painful austerity in exchange for a €78bn bailout. Although not in favour of Grexit, its liberal-conservative government opposes debt relief for Greece, arguing that Athens should get its house in order.
11. IRELAND: The taoiseach, Enda Kenny, has urged fellow European leaders to look at the bigger picture. But Ireland has swallowed its own bitter austerity medicine and is keen to ensure Greece does not get a no-strings bailout.
12. CYPRUS: With memories of its own chaotic €10bn bailout in 2013 still fresh, Cyprus hopes Greece will stay in the eurozone, but would like to see further reforms.
13. SLOVENIA: Slovenia would like Greece to remain in the eurozone, but would like to see Athens sign up to verifiable reform measures to regain trust.
14. ESTONIA: Along with its Baltic neighbours, Estonia has also taken a tough line with Greece. But Estonia’s president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, has warned that a Greekdefault could cost poorer eurozone members 4.2% of their GDP.
C,- Anything to avoid Grexit
15. FRANCE: At the 11th hour of the debt crisis, France became Greece’s champion. The French president, François Hollande, is determined to strike a deal and thinks Europe’s future is at stake.
16. ITALY: The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, is determined to keep Greece in the eurozone and stop the “humiliation” of a European partner that has given up so much already. “Enough is enough” is the message he wants to convey to Germany.
17. SPAIN: Madrid thinks keeping Greece in the euro is vital, but the centre-right government in Madrid will not want to make conditions too easy on Athens for fear of boosting the anti-austerity Podemos party.
18. LUXEMBOURG: Always a stalwart of European integration, Luxembourg argues that Germany has a responsibility to prevent Grexit. The foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, has said Grexit would trigger a deep conflict between Germany and France, which would be a catastrophe for Europe.
D.- MY CONCLUSIONS
SO, MY FRIENDS, AFTER THE ABOVE DESCRIPTION OF THE OPINIONS OF 18 MEMBERS OF THE EU REGARDING THE GREEK CASE, WHAT CONCLUSIONS WOULD YOU BE LIKELY TO DRAW?
LET ME SHARE MY OWN VIEWS WITH YOU AND SAY THAT I AM NOT, PERSONALLY, FOR ANYTHING TO AVOID GREXIT, THOUGH, I AM ALSO AGAINST FORCING GREECE TO BLINDLY ACCEPT THE CURRENT UNJUSTIFIABLY HARSH CONDITIONS THAT ARE BEING IMPOSED UPON THIS COUNTRY.
I BELIEVE, AS I HAVE REPEATEDLY MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS POSTS, THAT GREECE OUGHT TO BE GIVEN A SIX MONTHS “MORATORIUM” PERIOD TO PREPARE A THOROUGH AND FULLY DETAILED "REFORM PLAN" OF HOW IT INTENDS TO SOLVE THAT EQUATION. GREECE OUGHT TO PRESENT THAT PLAN INTO ITS MINUTEST DETAILS. THAT IS WHY IT REQUIRES THE SIX MONTHS PAUSE.
HOWEVER, TO PROVE THAT THIS REQUEST IS NOT JUST SOME DELAYING TACTIC,
THE GREEK LEADERS SHOULD ALSO BE REQUIRED TO PRESENT TO THEIR CREDITORS, AT THE END OF EVERY MONTH, A DETAILED REPORT OF THE PROGRESS OF THE PLAN’S ELABORATION PROJECT, IN ALL ITS PHASES.
FURTHERMORE, THE PLAN’S BROAD LINES OUGHT TO BE PRE-APPROVED INITIALLY BY THE CREDITORS. THIS PARTICULAR CONDITION SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE GREEK REQUEST IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A SIMPLE DELAYING TACTIC.
BY THE WAY, PLEASE NOTE THAT MY PROPOSALS ANSWER LITHUANIA’S OBJECTION (see 7 above).
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/12/eurozone-crisis-which-countries-are-for-or-against-grexit
A.- Open to Grexit
1. GERMANY: Angela Merkel has long sought to avoid going down in history as the German chancellor who presided over the breakup of the eurozone. But her government and many centre-right MPs are not convinced that Greece has done enough to justify a new three-year bailout.
2. AUSTRIA: Austria has been consistently downbeat about the prospects for an agreement with Greece and thinks the risks of broader contagion to the rest of the eurozone from an exit are limited.
3. THE NETHERLANDS: The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, is a close ally of Merkel and wants Greece to come up with far-reaching reforms, otherwise “it will be over quickly”.
4. BELGIUM: Although a champion of EU integration, Belgium’s centre-right government is worried the eurozone’s credibility would be damaged if agreements with Greece were changed.
5. FINLAND: The nationalist Finns party has threatened to pull out of the ruling coalition and topple Finland’s two-month old government if the country agrees to a third Greek bailout.
6. SLOVAKIA: An amicable split between Athens and its eurozone partners would be better than allowing Greece or the entire currency bloc to turn into a zombie state, argues Peter Kažimír, Slovakia’s finance minister.
7. LITHUANIA: Lithuania is the newest entrant to the eurozone and one of Greece’s harshest critics. The president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, has said Greece’s proposals are insufficient and BASED ON OUTDATED INFORMATION.
8. LATVIA: The Latvian prime minister, Laimdota Straujuma, insists she will not sign up to any agreement that means writing down the value of Greece’s debts, while the head of Latvia’s central bank thinks Greece has already “voted itself out of the eurozone”.
9. MALTA: “We need a solution but not at any cost,” the prime minister, Joseph Muscat, has said. Malta is against reducing Greece’s overall debt burden, but is prepared to make repayment terms more flexible.
B.- Wavering, but prefer to avoid Grexit
10. PORTUGAL: Portugal went through three years of painful austerity in exchange for a €78bn bailout. Although not in favour of Grexit, its liberal-conservative government opposes debt relief for Greece, arguing that Athens should get its house in order.
11. IRELAND: The taoiseach, Enda Kenny, has urged fellow European leaders to look at the bigger picture. But Ireland has swallowed its own bitter austerity medicine and is keen to ensure Greece does not get a no-strings bailout.
12. CYPRUS: With memories of its own chaotic €10bn bailout in 2013 still fresh, Cyprus hopes Greece will stay in the eurozone, but would like to see further reforms.
13. SLOVENIA: Slovenia would like Greece to remain in the eurozone, but would like to see Athens sign up to verifiable reform measures to regain trust.
14. ESTONIA: Along with its Baltic neighbours, Estonia has also taken a tough line with Greece. But Estonia’s president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, has warned that a Greekdefault could cost poorer eurozone members 4.2% of their GDP.
C,- Anything to avoid Grexit
15. FRANCE: At the 11th hour of the debt crisis, France became Greece’s champion. The French president, François Hollande, is determined to strike a deal and thinks Europe’s future is at stake.
16. ITALY: The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, is determined to keep Greece in the eurozone and stop the “humiliation” of a European partner that has given up so much already. “Enough is enough” is the message he wants to convey to Germany.
17. SPAIN: Madrid thinks keeping Greece in the euro is vital, but the centre-right government in Madrid will not want to make conditions too easy on Athens for fear of boosting the anti-austerity Podemos party.
18. LUXEMBOURG: Always a stalwart of European integration, Luxembourg argues that Germany has a responsibility to prevent Grexit. The foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, has said Grexit would trigger a deep conflict between Germany and France, which would be a catastrophe for Europe.
D.- MY CONCLUSIONS
SO, MY FRIENDS, AFTER THE ABOVE DESCRIPTION OF THE OPINIONS OF 18 MEMBERS OF THE EU REGARDING THE GREEK CASE, WHAT CONCLUSIONS WOULD YOU BE LIKELY TO DRAW?
LET ME SHARE MY OWN VIEWS WITH YOU AND SAY THAT I AM NOT, PERSONALLY, FOR ANYTHING TO AVOID GREXIT, THOUGH, I AM ALSO AGAINST FORCING GREECE TO BLINDLY ACCEPT THE CURRENT UNJUSTIFIABLY HARSH CONDITIONS THAT ARE BEING IMPOSED UPON THIS COUNTRY.
I BELIEVE, AS I HAVE REPEATEDLY MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS POSTS, THAT GREECE OUGHT TO BE GIVEN A SIX MONTHS “MORATORIUM” PERIOD TO PREPARE A THOROUGH AND FULLY DETAILED "REFORM PLAN" OF HOW IT INTENDS TO SOLVE THAT EQUATION. GREECE OUGHT TO PRESENT THAT PLAN INTO ITS MINUTEST DETAILS. THAT IS WHY IT REQUIRES THE SIX MONTHS PAUSE.
HOWEVER, TO PROVE THAT THIS REQUEST IS NOT JUST SOME DELAYING TACTIC,
THE GREEK LEADERS SHOULD ALSO BE REQUIRED TO PRESENT TO THEIR CREDITORS, AT THE END OF EVERY MONTH, A DETAILED REPORT OF THE PROGRESS OF THE PLAN’S ELABORATION PROJECT, IN ALL ITS PHASES.
FURTHERMORE, THE PLAN’S BROAD LINES OUGHT TO BE PRE-APPROVED INITIALLY BY THE CREDITORS. THIS PARTICULAR CONDITION SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE GREEK REQUEST IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A SIMPLE DELAYING TACTIC.
BY THE WAY, PLEASE NOTE THAT MY PROPOSALS ANSWER LITHUANIA’S OBJECTION (see 7 above).
13/07/2015
GREECE AND LEBANON – TWO COUNTRIES ON THE SAME
PATH TO SELF-DESTRUCTION
Greek debt currently stands at around 320 billion euros ($357 billion) —
a staggering 180 percent or so of the country's annual gross domestic product.
Few economists think that debt will ever be fully repaid. Last week, the International
Monetary Fund said Greece's debt will need to be restructured.
Our Debt, in Lebanon currently stands at $75 billion - a staggering 166
per cent of our GDP, not far from Greece’s current percentage.
However, the difference is that we do not have a European Union to give
us a helping hand to prevent an eventual collapse.
But, what is worse, our creditors are not forcing upon us the need for
REFORMS which we have not even attempted to introduce during the past 22 years.
If we keep going “SILLY, ”the way we are doing today, our Debt will
undoubtedly be $121 billion (268% of GDP) in less than seven years, and $248
billion (551% of GDP) in 2031. But we shall never reach that state because,
long before that, Lebanon, as we know it today, would have ceased to exist.
So, in order to please the
Lebanese who do not like our flag and would like to see, instead, the Iranian
or the Saudi flag floating over Parliament House, I suggest we do nothing and
let time accomplish its destructive work.
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